Download Making Good Decisions by Reidar B. Bratvold PDF

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By Reidar B. Bratvold

Determination making and uncertainty within the exploration and creation ? the best way to make sturdy judgements ? Quantifying uncertainty ? Monte Carlo simulation ? Structuring and fixing choice difficulties ? developing worth from uncertainty ? Behavioral demanding situations in determination making

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For example, maximizing NPV may be considered twice as important as maximizing next year’s production rate. Preference, in this context, is used to describe the relative desirability between different objectives and not our preference for the incremental 42 Making Good Decisions returns (or risks) of the various possible outcomes within a single objective (attribute), which was discussed in the previous step. The solution to this problem is simply to apply relative weights to each objective. However, the weights must be assigned with care.

If you ever wonder why you are doing something or you want some guiding context for it, reflect on the payoff matrix. Directly or indirectly, the jobs of most technical and professional staff in an organization are related to identifying alternatives and assessing their payoffs, with the decision makers being largely responsible for specifying objectives. Remember, however, that not all decisions are about where to drill wells. You may be deciding on, for example, which drilling contractor to hire—or, if you are a service company, how to set your pricing and terms.

Define Attribute Scales. The next step defines scales for measuring the achievement of objectives. There are two types of scale: natural and constructed. A natural scale is a commonly understood quantity measured or calculated objectively. Examples are reserves in STB, NPV in dollars, and production rate in STB/D. If objectives are defined precisely, an appropriate natural scale may be implicit. , Fahrenheit or Celsius to measure temperature). A constructed scale is required for objectives without a commonly accepted measure, such as the reliability of a potential equipment supplier.

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