Download Higher Education to 2030 (Vol. 1): Demography by OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PDF

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By OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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20. We have connected successive years in order better to identify the time path of these Gompertz lines. 19. But suddenly, around 1975, this trend pattern no longer holds true. The path diverges horizontally from the line that it was following until then, which means that the slope is decreasing. This only lasts for a few years and, starting in 1980, another rectilinear path appears that is very clearly separate from the former one and much less inclined. 19, where the slopes changed much more slowly while the coefficient K diminished rapidly.

2 illustrates projections of student enrolments in higher education systems in accordance with a trend scenario. Rather than freezing rates of entry to higher education at their 2004 level, the rates are extrapolated linearly on the basis of the trends in each country between 2000 and 2004. Aside from the quality of the data available, one reason for selecting a short time series is to limit the perceived impact of the previous expansion of systems. In some countries such as Germany or France, this decision may have a bearing on the projections, because of renewed growth in participation during these years after a period of very little change.

Still to be explained is the sudden upswing in fertility in East Germany in 1975. The immediate reason was, of course, the maternal salary law, which triggered a windfall effect. Women who were planning to have a child at a later date decided to do so earlier. This was exactly the opposite of what was happening at the same time in the West. As a result, the two demographic regimes suddenly veered in different directions, as the East adapted to the nature of work and housing under a communist regime.

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